Reena Bromberg Gaber
As the world prepares for Joe Biden to assume the American presidency in January 2021, every country wonders what the transition of power will be like for them. Israel is no different.
Speaking at a briefing on the subject this past week, Bar Ilan University Professor of Communications and Foreign Relations Eytan Gilboa outlined potential affects the Biden Administration will have on Israel.
On Inauguration Day 2021, Biden will be the oldest President to serve and would likely serve just one term. Because of this, according to Gilboa, President-elect Biden’s term in office will be dedicated to domestic issues, fulfilling Biden’s campaign promise to “restore the soul of America”. This will leave time to focus on foreign affairs only when it pertains to the national security and welfare of the United States.
However, in terms of Israel, “Obviously Biden is not going to be Trump but neither is he going to be Obama,” Gilboa said before explaining the changes the Middle East will likely see.
Although Biden has committed, on multiple occasions, to keep the US embassy in Jerusalem, he has also committed to reopening the American consulate in East Jerusalem for Palestinians and the Palestinian Liberation Office in Washington, DC, to renewing economic assistance to the Palestinian Authority, and to resuming economic assistance to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.
The security and military collaboration between the US and Israel will probably continue but Biden may not pursue Trump’s plan to normalize relations with Gulf states—although Trump has a Lame Duck period to continue with these strategic alliances.
Additionally, Biden’s commitment to reinvolve the U.S. in international organizations like the United Nations will probably be at a disadvantage for Israel, the “most discriminated against” country in the Security Council and General Assembly, Gilboa added.
One of the highest national security priorities concerning the US in the Middle East, is Iran’s nuclear program. According to Gilboa, Iran has been “fast-producing nuclear material” since Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action early in his term. Conversations over how Biden will address this include discussions of rejoining the 2015 JCPOA or creating a new deal altogether.
Iran is willing to come to the negotiating table with removal of sanctions as a precondition, Gilboa said. He also said that issues left out by President Barack Obama, like long-range missiles, will probably be brought back into the conversation. Gilboa thinks the participation of Israel in new negotiations is critical to the success of a new deal. He ended his thoughts by adding that this “will be very tough because Americans, in general, are not that good in negotiations of this kind with Iran.”
An uncertain change Israel faces, is the difference in relationships that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has with Trump and with Biden. The Senate has been Republican, an advantage for Netanyahu, and he shared a close, personal relationship with Trump. Therefore throughout the Trump Administration, Netanyahu had considerable influence in American politics relating to the Middle East.
Netanyahu’s relationship with Biden, however, is more distant. How much influence in the United States Netanyahu holds onto moving forward will be determined in January after the final Senate races in Georgia are decided. This will dictate whether or not the Republicans hold onto their majority or if the Senate will split evenly between the two parties.
As the world learns more about what the next four years may look like, many appointments and decisions made by Biden in the coming months will serve as indicators, at least in the Middle East, as to what could happen. One decision Gilboa thinks will indicate what Biden’s plans are, is if Biden appoints a special Presidential emissary for the peace process. Gilboa also mentioned potential picks for key high-level positions–possibly a Secretary of State Susan Rice, a National Security Advisor Tony Blinken, a U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Pete Buttigieg–all “less friendly to Israel” that could suggest Biden’s positions.
>>This was written for Reporting Armed Conflict in the Middle East, a course taught at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, fall 2020. The seminar based course focused on objectives, methods, and consequences of media involvement in armed conflicts. Reported on conflicts, both social and political, in Israel. Articles included reporting on political unrest and protests, religious conflicts, and relations with Gaza.
